What to worry about

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/06/20/tv-business-needs-help-but-not-nearly-as-much-as-newspapers/21107

TVbythenumbers says not to stress about internet - worry about the DVR because consumers hate commercials. For shows like LOST, DVR impact is more than three times as great as Internet viewing.

Reminds that TV isn’t like newspapers which had a monolpoly on local distribution and got classified taken away. TV content is far easier to control and its harder to commoditize, only Lost is Lost. Hard to compete with high end TV without spending money.



Here are big issues for cable/TV going forward

1. Carriage fees for broadcast networks on cable and satellite offerings.  Despite decreases, the broadcast networks are the most-watched networks.  Even on Comcast, Time Warner and DirecTV, broadcast networks are the most-watched networks. Perhaps the single biggest revenue growth opportunity for the broadcast networks is increased carriage fees from the cable and satellite companies that are more in sync with overall viewing.


2. The trend toward more unscripted programming seems likely to continue.   cheaper, and it is more DVR proof. Sports programming, which are already a very important component, will grow in importance for this reason.


3. SOME equilibrium between broadcast advertising rates and cable network advertising rates.  gaps to narrow.  S


4. Figuring out how to monetize DVR and Video On Demand (VOD) viewing better.  product placement, as well as more general sponsorships are pretty DVR-proof.  more ads on VOD.

reminds the Internet is a vastly more expensive distribution platform than cable or broadcast, and the people who want to consume the content that way mostly don’t seem to want to pay or deal with a normal amount of advertising.

"As for making content freely available on the Internet, it’s a model that’s busted from the start, and I don’t see how it’s in the networks interest to make something more widely available via a mechanism that generates less advertising and subscriber revenue and costs them more to distribute.  But for now, since the data is in and overwhelmingly people still prefer to watch TV via traditional methods – even the people who regular watch video online, not only isn’t it the highest priority for the TV world to deal with, for now, it shouldn’t be." Unless of course piracy...