The New Content Economy

http://paidcontent.org/article/419-in-the-new-content-economy-consumers-want-access-not-ownership

Music lawyer Fred Davis says everyone knows future on "access" not "ownership." He says :

By studying the data about access to music and video, one has to realize the potential of monetizing access. If you add up the views of music videos on YouTube and the audio streams of music on MySpace alone, they are in the billions per year. The popularity of access is enormous. The value of access is enormous. The monetization potential is enormous. But try to remember, for a moment, how long it took the radio industry to evolve into a profitable TV industry? (Hint: a lot longer than a decade.)

As he notes, What is TV Everywhere but ubiquitous access to content? What is Hulu but ubiquitous access to content? Spotify?

Can big media really not figure out how to benefit from this? Yes, the share of the big is smaller (with so many competitors) but won't popular content still command the biggest audiences?

Online market size

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=116670

"Why license all that content to something that works that well, that seamlessly, yet without the economic model around it?" - Quincy Smith, formerly of CBS. Points out market size

online video: $700 million
TV: $120 billion

Adds "half of those [TV ad buyers] are spending 90% of their time doing Google keywords, not buying online video." Does that show a nascent market or a non-working model that won't get premium content?

Will search ads work for rich media video?

Google made the web into a superior direct mail service. Does it work for video? They are testing a service where users could elect to skip ads and ad guys would only pay for performance. Does this work? Aren't branding ads like on TV far different from informational/transacation ads on direct mail?

Google says:

* 15 second preroll results in a 15 percent abandonment rate - but down from 70 percetn a few years ago.
* creative has three times the influence on abandonment compared to spots on TV.
* 2x as many users abandon 30 second preroll versus 15.

More on the test: Google is opting-in advertisers running video campaigns via AdWords for the test. It will display a small text option in the right-hand corner of the viewer, reading, "Skip this ad." Clicking that text takes users directly to the videos they wish to play. YouTube is running the experiment on clips produced as part of its partner program with creators who have elected to include in-stream ads. Google sees an opportunity, however, to collect valuable user data that could contribute to the development of a quality-score system similar to the one it uses to determine the placement and pricing of search ads. The company is already testing user-choice pre-rolls to gain information on ad popularity. "The longterm vision is more of a pay-for-performance model," said Phil Farhi, product manager at YouTube.
The idea is that advertisers could come to Google with a video, a target-audience number and a maximum price it would pay for each view.

Twitter, social networks helps drive TV interest

http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/25/has-the-quality-of-tv-improved-or-just-the-buzz-about-it/

Top ten trending topics on Twitter often TV shows...sneak peaks like Glee and Modern Family let buzz build....per NYT "Most of us depend on a network of friends when it comes to confronting the tsunami of new programming in the fall, and let’s face it, between Facebook, Twitter, Linked-In and MySpace, we all have a lot more “friends” making a lot more recommendations."

Per James Poniewozik of Time, "things like Twitter can’t help but intensify the feedback loop. On trending topics, you are more or less watching a real-time Billboard chart — gee, “Glee is number one with a bullet, I better check that out” — and I think it increases the level of excitement.”

Says Syracuse's oft-quoted Bob Thompson, “The television industry has been able to deputize the entire nation as their promotion vehicle."

Shocking DVR relevations - folks still watch ads

Even DVR households watch the ads.

Key digits:

* 33% of TV homes now own DVRS
* According to Nielsen, 46 percent of viewers 18 to 49 years old for all four networks taken together are watching the commercials during playback. Why? People are lazy, they forget.
* Viewership of DVRs (standard measurement is DVR plus three days playback) turning big shows bigger, marginal shows into middling successes.
* DVR viewing adding 7 to 12 percent increase to ratings, wtih some shows showing increases of more than 20 percent.
* Networks initially opposed the commercial-plus-three system because 6 to 8 percent of commercials were already being avoided during live broadcasts because people switched channels.
* Will networks want commercial ratings plus seven days? Right now, those views free to advertisers.

No more big TVs?

California may ban certain large sized TVs for environmental reasons? Hmm..hadn't considered that impact...

Myth of cord cutters

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-notv26-2009oct26,0,3559474.story?page=1

Still like bigfoot - no real trend there - people LOVE TV, even if they find stuff to watch online not on a TV. Here's the only things that's worth noting:

"A recent survey by the Consumer Electronics Assn. found that 15% of viewers would consider it." Wow, not so brutal actually given all the future peril.

Plus, "According to a survey released last month by the nonprofit Conference Board, about 20% of responders said they were watching less TV delivered through traditional broadcast or paid cable-type providers." SURVEY NOT ACCURATE, SEE BEHAVIOR- Nielsen data shows that people now watching MORE TV the traditional way. (People may not think they are..but they are.)

Sure, but TV viewers change channel too

http://app2.e2ma.net/campaign/1400373.54f1dcd64b0ed73e0dfdd47a1368b81e

According to four years of data accumulated by video network Vidsense, 15-second pre-roll ad causes 8% of the audience to abandon the clip before it starts. A 30-second pre-roll sends 22% of the audience packing. As for Post Roll, Vidsense claims that its data indicate 76% of viewers flee before the end the ad.

Hard out here for social TV

http://newteevee.com/2009/10/13/social-tv-is-harder-than-we-thought/

early stuff stinks useability wise.

Other issues to figure out: what to use as a remote, how to make viewing parties happen naturally, how to coordinate various screens and input and managing widget clutter.

set top box future

http://newteevee.com/2009/10/13/gigaom-pro-on-q3-online-video-taking-steps-toward-maturity/

Watch future of set top box: Brite-View introduced the low-cost CinemaCube set-top box, and Netgear released its Digital Entertainer Live, a scaled-down version of the Digital Entertainer Elite. Roku added more content to its set-top device, announcing partnerships with MLB.TV and blip.tv. However, Vudu’s efforts this quarter may be more telling for the future; the company is now bypassing the set-top box and integrating its service directly into the TV. The company had several new wins in the quarter, announcing its service will be included on Mitsubishi and LG TVs.

How easy will it be for more targeting pt. 2

http://paidcontent.org/article/419-inside-word-what-the-netflix-prize-says-about-the-shortfalls-of-ad-targ/

http://andrewchenblog.com/2009/09/21/whenever-ad-networks-talk-about-their-targeting-remember-the-netflix-prize/

<a href = "http://andrewchenblog.com">Andrew Chen</a>says Netflix prize that improved recommendations just 10% shows how hard it is get big increase in targetting, esp for startups: "new ad network where you end up with noisy datasets, lots of crappy traffic...10% is not a big enough number to counteract the other economic drivers in the ad market, which revolves around better deal terms, a larger selection of advertisers, better ad inventory, etc."

Thinks opportunity is for better ad inventory getting clickthroughs of plus 30% (which the best do) and  better data beyond domains, cookies, and ad impressions which everyone has..maybe using own customers data no one else has access to (tho there is netflix again)

How easy will it be for more targeting pt. 1

http://newteevee.com/2009/10/14/execs-decry-lack-of-interactivity-targeting-in-video-ads/

Execs decry lack of interactivity targeting in video ads

"Despite new technology that can provide more engaging and better targeted ads for online video, most publishers have been stuck repurposing 15- and 30-second TV spots online, a problem that execs say leads to lower CPMs and a poor user experience. But with advertisers and agencies struggling, there may not be an easy fix to this problem.

The need for publishers to develop their own custom ad units is being driven mainly by agencies that don’t have the resources to create new, interactive ad units, according to Dina Kaplan, COO and co-founder of blip.tv.

“One of the challenges is that now that clients have budgets for web video, which they do, you need to have video assets, you need to have pre-rolls, and post-rolls, and you need to have overlays. And at a time when the agencies are struggling, having to create more assets presents some challenges,” Kaplan said. “Agencies are shedding people, so how do you create more ad units with fewer people?”"

George Kliavkoff, EVP of Hearst Entertainment & Syndication: More targeting needed. “If all we’re going to do is take content from the TV and put it on the web, and all we’re going to do is put the same 15-second or 30-second ads on the web, can we at least target those ads? I know it’s some grand vision of the future, but i figured it would be here by now.”

The big question

http://twitter.com/KBAndersen/status/2009026188

From my former boss <a href = "http://www.kurtandersen.com">Kurt Andersen</a>:

About the big media reset: are advertisers underpaying for digital ads now, or were they overpaying for print & TV in the good old days?6:02 PM Jun 2nd

KBAndersen

Kurt Andersen

What to worry about

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/06/20/tv-business-needs-help-but-not-nearly-as-much-as-newspapers/21107

TVbythenumbers says not to stress about internet - worry about the DVR because consumers hate commercials. For shows like LOST, DVR impact is more than three times as great as Internet viewing.

Reminds that TV isn’t like newspapers which had a monolpoly on local distribution and got classified taken away. TV content is far easier to control and its harder to commoditize, only Lost is Lost. Hard to compete with high end TV without spending money.



Here are big issues for cable/TV going forward

1. Carriage fees for broadcast networks on cable and satellite offerings.  Despite decreases, the broadcast networks are the most-watched networks.  Even on Comcast, Time Warner and DirecTV, broadcast networks are the most-watched networks. Perhaps the single biggest revenue growth opportunity for the broadcast networks is increased carriage fees from the cable and satellite companies that are more in sync with overall viewing.


2. The trend toward more unscripted programming seems likely to continue.   cheaper, and it is more DVR proof. Sports programming, which are already a very important component, will grow in importance for this reason.


3. SOME equilibrium between broadcast advertising rates and cable network advertising rates.  gaps to narrow.  S


4. Figuring out how to monetize DVR and Video On Demand (VOD) viewing better.  product placement, as well as more general sponsorships are pretty DVR-proof.  more ads on VOD.

reminds the Internet is a vastly more expensive distribution platform than cable or broadcast, and the people who want to consume the content that way mostly don’t seem to want to pay or deal with a normal amount of advertising.

"As for making content freely available on the Internet, it’s a model that’s busted from the start, and I don’t see how it’s in the networks interest to make something more widely available via a mechanism that generates less advertising and subscriber revenue and costs them more to distribute.  But for now, since the data is in and overwhelmingly people still prefer to watch TV via traditional methods – even the people who regular watch video online, not only isn’t it the highest priority for the TV world to deal with, for now, it shouldn’t be." Unless of course piracy...

Coming TV interactivity

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/366272-CTAM_Summit_2009_Comcast_s_Burke_Tells_TV_Biz_To_Help_Stop_Cord_Cutting.php

Aggregation still key online, CANOE can help cable:

Laura Desmond, CEO of Starcom MediaVest Group, appeared on the same CTAM panel, titled, "The Future of Advertising," saying that clients such as Procter & Gamble are well on their way to preparing themselves for a new world of media, one that gives them the same advantages in digital media as they receive from their long relationship with the mass media players. She applauded the efforts of aggregators such as Comcast's Fancast and Hulu, which just received a big ad buy from Starcom's MediaVest unit.

Desmond said addressability, the kind being prepared by the cable industry's Canoe Ventures and others, would help advertisers minimize waste. She suggested that around 40% to 50% of a typical primetime ad buy was wasted on viewers not interested in the product or service or outside of the advertisers' target.

AND Comcast COO Burke thinks the interactive capabilities of cable will apply equally to content creators not just advertisers. He envisioned a future where cable users might be able to vote for their favorite American Idol contestant thanks to EBIF, a software application being rolled out by Comcast to allow for interactivity. Such interactivity would be available system wide in 2010.

Don't Say TV Biz is Music Biz

http://blogmaverick.com/2009/04/07/why-newspaper-and-music-comparisons-are-no-longer-relevant-why-the-ap-is-right/

Mark Cuban really has many unique things to say about the future of the TV biz.

This post says not to compare TV to music or newspapers because those were physically distributed items that were usurped by better delivery, capability and user satisfaction on the net. BUT TV's delivery system superior to the internet.

Also points out in home entertainment still the best deal in entertainment.

Here goes nothing

Totally stressed out TV producer who is interested in getting my arms around the changing medium, not only for my own career longevity but also because I really have fun creating TV and hope to continue for at least 10 more years! Watch my thinking evolve as I keep random notes/trends that try to hope that TV won't go the way of newspapers and magazines.

Mark Cuban says why shouldn't the Internet be Over the Top too?

Mark Cuban says TV Everywhere its the best model for cablers who don't want to give up paying subscribers (which makes to everyone but internet nihilists.) Having both pipes also gives pipe guys a leg up because video can be hosted intra-network and deliver far better quality.

Funny parallel: for all those over the toppers, why isn't internet access a la carte? Says Cuban, "I only go to maybe 10 sites regularly. I get RSS feeds for another 50. Why should I have to pay for the resources required to provide access to the other 10zillion sites that consume resources ? Why shouldn’t I only pay for the 10 I go to?....Why should I pay for my ISP to provide bandwidth for P2P downloaders ? I only want to pay for the bandwidth I consume, not a bit more. 99pct of the sites i use are text based information sites. Why should I pay for the bandwidth I might consume ? I only use the internet 8 hours or so a day, why should i pay for the other 16 hours in a day ? Worse yet, because of the P2P bandwidth consumers, not only do i subsidize their habits, but they slow me down... At least my tv picture quality is never impacted by who is using it or how much they pay."